Papua New Guinea has finally received a piece of encouraging news: the country’s central bank (BPNG) has projected a notable improvement in the national economy for 2025.
Speaking at this morning’s 2025 Economic Outlook Breakfast, BPNG Governor Elizabeth Genia delivered a strong signal of optimism.
“In the medium term, economic growth is expected to rise significantly,” she said, “driven by the anticipated commencement of major resource projects such as the Papua LNG, along with a global economic recovery that will boost demand for PNG’s exports.”
This is more than just a technical forecast — it’s a signal of national confidence.
According to projections, PNG’s real GDP growth in 2025 is expected to reach 4.0%, up from an estimated 3.0% in 2024.
The momentum for this improvement is not solely rooted in the recovery of the mining and energy sectors. Growth is also emerging from foundational industries like agriculture, fisheries, and forestry — a sign that the structural base of PNG’s economy is becoming more stable.
Notably, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook released in January 2025, forecast global growth to hold steady at 3.3% over the next two years.
For a resource-exporting country like PNG, this global upturn represents a crucial window of opportunity — a matter of timing in its favor.
However, favorable timing alone is not enough. It must be matched by sound governance and people-centered policy. Increased government spending, particularly in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, will be vital to ensuring that economic growth actually benefits ordinary citizens.
To achieve that, policy implementation capacity and anti-corruption mechanisms must be strengthened in parallel.
The year 2025 could well be a turning point for PNG’s economy — a chance to return to a sustainable path.
Still, we must remain sober-minded. The road ahead is far from smooth. A volatile global landscape — shaped by the US presidential election, China’s economic transition, and Australia’s evolving foreign policies — could indirectly affect PNG’s external environment.
What PNG must do is stay proactive amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, defend its resource sovereignty, and make the most of the global recovery to translate growth into tangible improvements in people’s lives.
After all, the economy is not just a race of numbers — it is a long journey of national confidence and a shared destiny for all citizens.
