On June 30, 2025, the World Bank released its Papua New Guinea Economic Update in Port Moresby, projecting that the country’s economy will grow by 4.7% in 2025 — well above the historical average.
The key drivers of this growth are rising gold and copper production, and a strong recovery in agriculture.
However, the World Bank cautions that if Papua New Guinea (PNG) is to embark on a path of stable, inclusive, and sustainable development, the answer does not lie beneath the ground in mineral deposits — but above it, in its farmland. Agricultural reform, the report stresses, is imperative.
In an era of volatile global commodity prices, the report unusually devotes extensive attention to agriculture.
Once viewed as a backward or inefficient sector, agriculture is now redefined in the report as “a strategic pillar of PNG’s development” and “the cornerstone of national resilience.” Over 85% of Papua New Guineans rely on agriculture for their livelihoods — making it not just an economic concern, but a fundamental issue of governance and social stability.
The World Bank states bluntly: “If PNG continues to over-rely on the mining sector, the country’s development will remain fragile and divided.”
Resources Can Be a Curse — Agriculture Is the Future
This is not an empty macroeconomic slogan, but a sobering reality check. History has shown that dozens of resource-rich countries — from Venezuela in Latin America to Angola in Africa — have suffered economic distortion and governance failure due to overdependence on extractives. Resources brought them short-term prosperity, but drained their long-term competitiveness.
For PNG, gold and liquefied natural gas may be catalysts of current growth, but no nation can rely forever on “digging deep” to sustain itself. Commodity prices are not set in Waigani — they are dictated by algorithms in Wall Street and trading floors in London.
Depending on the whims of the global market is less secure than depending on the land under our feet. Agriculture is not backward — it is the most practical expression of economic sovereignty.
Core Message: Agriculture Brings Employment, Exports, and Poverty Reduction
The World Bank argues that with the right policy mix, agriculture can become a triple-engine of employment creation, export expansion, and poverty alleviation. Key recommendations include:
- Improving smallholder productivity: by supplying quality seeds, promoting efficient farming techniques, and building agricultural extension services.
- Enhancing the agricultural value chain: through investment in rural infrastructure, post-harvest processing, and cold chain logistics, ensuring products can reach markets efficiently and profitably.
- Optimizing the institutional environment: including reform of land-use systems and strengthening public-private partnerships to attract investment and empower farmers.
In the fields of PNG lies not just food, but the cradle of the country’s future middle class. Without strong agriculture, urbanization risks becoming a machine for manufacturing slums rather than a pathway to prosperity.
Progress in Fiscal Reform, But Risks Remain
The report notes improvements in PNG’s fiscal health: the 2024 fiscal deficit has declined to 3.2% of GDP, indicating initial success in government efforts to control spending. Yet significant risks persist — a chronic shortage of foreign exchange remains unresolved, global commodity volatility and increasing natural disasters due to climate change could destabilize macroeconomic conditions again.
The World Bank calls on PNG to continue fiscal consolidation and deepen structural reforms, while ramping up investment in education and healthcare — to build a truly “people-centered” development model.
The Real Resources Are the Land and the People — Not the Mines
If gold and oil symbolize “capital power,” then agriculture embodies “people power.” Only when people have secure livelihoods can a nation’s development be considered stable, autonomous, and long-term.
The World Bank’s report may appear to be a set of economic recommendations, but in essence, it is a reminder of national strategy.
If Papua New Guinea is to become a strong nation in the South Pacific, it must shift from an “underground economy” to an “above-ground economy” — making agriculture the true foundation of national security and social stability.
Whether PNG can achieve fiscal balance and economic diversification does not depend solely on the fluctuations of global markets, but more importantly, on how it treats its quiet yet fertile land — and the quiet yet hardworking farmers who tend it.
